Bigger Than Trump vs Harris
Proposition 1 Would Drastically Change Idaho Elections
While the Trump vs Harris Presidential race will garner tremendous attention nationally, here in Idaho, it won’t be much of a contest. The more consequential race for Idahoans on the November ballot will be Proposition 1.
How Prop1 Will Change Our Elections
First, Prop1 will abolish party ballots in primary elections. Voters will no longer choose which party ballot to vote and will instead have one ballot with all of the candidates from each party on it. The top four ‘vote getters’ advance to the general election.
Second, Prop1 will also change how the general election is tabulated. Instead of voting for one candidate, each voter will rank up to four candidates in order of preference. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, it triggers the ‘ranked choice voting’ algorithm to decide who wins the election.
The algorithm uses a series of rounds, and the lowest remaining vote getter in each round is removed and people who voted for that candidate have their next choice vote reallocated. This continues until two candidates remain and the one with the most votes wins. In some situations, the candidate who did not have the most votes in the first round can end up winning the election.
Is Prop1 Popular?
We can draw from the BSU survey from the past year to get an early indication of how Idaho feels about these changes. The BSU survey covered both aspects of the Proposition.
As for the changes to the primary, those who have strong opinions favor the changes by roughly 62-38 (%).
And for the general election where ranked choice voting would be implemented, those with strong opinions oppose the change by roughly 71-29 (%).
If the information about Prop 1 is presented to voters in a similar setting as the survey, the results show that it would be difficult for Prop 1 to succeed. However, outreach to voters will have different messaging and may be overwhelmingly slanted towards one-side based upon anticipated funding. As well, half of the survey respondents did not have strong opinions about the Proposition. Therefore, the fate of Prop 1 rests with what voters will hear about it over the next 2+ months.
Who is Behind Prop1?
The basic idea behind Proposition 1 is not unique to Idaho. Alaska began using something very similar in 2022, although a repeal effort is on the ballot this November. Maine implemented ranked choice voting in 2018. Massachusetts rejected an attempt in 2020. Oregon, Nevada, Montana and possibly Colorado will also be voting on similar measures on their upcoming November ballots.
There is big money pushing these efforts in virtually every state with proponents of these measures typically spending 10 times what opponents are spending. We will delve into who is funding these efforts in our next article.
Informing the Public
We hope this inaugural issue provides you with a summary of the current situation with respect to Proposition 1. As a 501c4, the main role of Secure Idaho Elections with respect to this Proposition is to educate Idaho voters and help them cast an informed vote on November 5th. You can visit our website for more information and we will continue to research and write about this topic and other election topics as they arise. Please share and if you are able, a paid subscription will help insure we can continue this work.
There is intense discussion of how to defeat this monstrosity. Whilst door knocking or while speaking to attendees at the Western Idaho State Fair, it was dismaying to find that many have not even heard about Prop 1! This is being snuck in "under the radar," for sure, and for very sound reasons by very bad people. Many of the proposed anti-Prop1 suggestions attempt to "explain" how it works. I believe that this is astoundingly difficult to do at best, and impossible to do in any way that will be retained by our lamentably low attention span voters. I like the suggestion that we appeal to their "feelings" and also that we avoid making declarations of opposition and state "our" facts, because some will dismiss them as just more propaganda. I have heard that at the Canyon County Fair, the Ds had a woman body-painted as Lady Liberty prancing about while proclaiming the wonders of Prop1. Alas, the Ds know their intended audience all too well. In an honest attempt to explain the tangled mess of Prop1 ( how many have actually READ it??), I believe we get far too "wonky." IMHO, I suggest that we make appeals to their feelings and also simply ask questions, ala The Parables, so as to engage a little bit of thinking instead of simply challenging what they may already have cemented in their minds. As examples of "feelings" that many people would have against Prop 1 if they knew what we knew: it is DISHONEST to not tell people that they are signing in support of two huge changes in Idaho's elections, and it is UNFAIR that several times those with the most votes lost!! I have made a one page anti Prop 1 display along those lines and would attach it here if it is allowed and I knew how!! I also have a small but moribund Substack account, and if necessary I will post my suggestions there.
As an additional issue, I have heard that many Rs actually support the idea of what they mistakenly believe are Open Primaries. Of course, that is yet another lie in the Prop 1 propaganda, because it actually would produce Jungle Primaries, where no one could tell who was what. My proposed answer to that: imagine going to the grocery store to buy cereal and all of them are in white boxes labeled Great Cereal. You know they are made by different companies, but because they SAY they are Great Cereal, they MUST be OK. Right? No, of course not. If all the voters have to go by are the words and promises of the politicians, they are just buying a form of Snake Oil. Some have said they don't trust R politicians because they cannot be sure that they will vote as they promised. Alas, there has been some truth to that, but there is much less now that our current ID GOP Chairman has pushed for declarations of support for the official party platform, or else give reasons for disagreement with specific sections. Failure to vote as claimed will be noticed and will now have consequences, so the voters can now have more confidence in their representatives.
For much more discussion also see https://substack.com/@bige47/p-147584868